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Rethinking China’s Actual and Desired Fertility: Now and Future
Wang Jinying,Ma Zhiyue,Li Jiarui
Population Research    2019, 43 (2): 32-44.  
Abstract369)      PDF (1707KB)(390)       Save
This paper uses the data of the seven northern provinces and cities in the 2017 China Fertility Survey, to assess the fertility status and actual fertility level in China, particularly in the northern provinces, with total fertility rate, parity progressive total fertility rate, lifetime fertility rate, and fertility patterns (age patterns of marriage and childbearing). The results suggest that the fertility level in China is indeed at a moderately low fertility level between 1.5 and 1.9, but not at a very low level. The twochild policy has a significant effect on the fertility of the second child. Parity Progressive desired fertility tends to more truly represent the actual desired fertility. According to the parity progressive desired fertility at ages 20~29 and 30~39, there is a possibility of increase in future fertility in China.
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